It appears that Billary's exploitation of the racial divide may be backfiring in South Carolina according to a SurveyUSA poll. John Edwards looks to be gaining:
Obama: 45%
Clinton: 29%
Edwards: 22%
Hillary's advantage among just white voters is shrinking:
Clinton: 37%
Edwards: 34%
Obama: 24%
Other polls have Hillary with a stronger advantage over Edwards but this one gives us hope (so we will choose to ignore the other ones).
Edwards could be seeing a late surge due to his good performance in the debate. His populist message could gain more traction as the economy continues to deteriorate especially in a state like South Carolina. The question now is what would a third-place finish mean for Hillary's campaign? Could it have the effect of puncturing the inevitability aura that was shattered in Iowa but rebuilt in New Hampshire and Nevada? Could Democratic voters be starting to give John Edwards a serious look and liking what they see?
Some observers like Dick Morris have been saying that Edwards should vacate the race because he is splitting the anti-Hillary vote. I'm not so sure about that. I haven't had the sense that there was a particularly strong anti-Hillary contingent within the Democratic Party. I hope that is starting to change given the dirty campaign tactics she and her husband have been employing but it hasn't shown up in the polling data.
There's no guarantee that if Edwards dropped out of the race his supporters would automatically gravitate to Obama. My guess is they would probably split evenly among the two. However, if Edwards stays in the race he may begin to chip away more at Hillary's base of support than Obama's. On an ideological spectrum I would place Hillary and Edwards closer to each other than either is to Obama. Certainly on health care that's the case.
So maybe Obama supporters should be cheering for Edwards to stay in rather than get out. When it comes down to deal-making time I firmly believe that he would be much more likely to tilt towards Obama than Hillary. Edwards is constantly talking about the need to take on the vested interests in Washington to bring about real change. He knows Hillary will never do that.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
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2 comments:
Edwards actual senate record was fairly conservative (coming from North Carolina). He managed to acquire 54 million dollars in assets, a lifetime guarantee in the other America, he now condemns.
He is against back room deals, but he had quite a private chat with Hillary after the most recent debate. It may have been innocent, but at the same time, I wonder what she was lobbying him. You are right his supporters are probably split, in spite of of what Dick Morris said, maybe even Edwards is split and will take the best offer for himself under counsel.
Which America will he take if from; that of a former community organizer who is trying to change America and is the underdog, or for a seat at cabinet, that the White House/ Clinton Establishment will keep warm for, provided he does their bidding?
Larkin,
Did you scrub your comments from Blue, or is someone else doing that? Looking at a bunch of old threads, it's clear that your comments have disappeared.
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