Clinton Spin Machine Pumps up Prospect of Obama Blowout

The Clinton spin machine at work:

Clinton aides have tried to dampen expectations, publicly stoking the prospect of an Obama sweep today. But strategic moves by both sides in recent days indicate that Virginia is positioned as Clinton's likeliest target of opportunity.

Howard Wolfson, the Clinton campaign's communications director, said Virginia was "a state along with Maryland and others in February where Sen. Obama has significant advantages. We have long factored that reality into our planning."

So they have "long factored" that reality into their planning have they? Well, they haven't been planning for it too long because just 11 weeks ago the polls in Virginia were telling a different story:

Clinton: 49%
Obama: 25%

I'd be willing to wager that a poll taken before South Carolina would have shown similar results. The contest in South Carolina fundamentally changed the nature of this race because it demonstrated that Obama couldn't just beat Clinton but he could beat the tar out of her as his 28% margin in that state demonstrated. It also showed that he could dominate the African-American vote while splitting off a good percentage of the white vote.

Since South Carolina, Obama has racked up some hefty double-digit margins of victory:

Idaho: 63%
Alaska: 49%
Kansas: 48%
Washington: 37%
Nebraska: 36%
Colorado: 35%
Georgia: 35%
Minnesota: 34%
Illinois: 32%*
North Dakota: 24%
Louisiana: 21%
Maine: 19%
Utah: 18%
Alabama: 14%

While Clinton has less than half as many; two of which are her home states (asterisks):

Arkansas: 44%*
Oklahoma: 24%
New York: 17%*
Massachusetts: 15%
Tennessee: 13%
California: 10%
New Jersey: 10%

The margin of victory obviously matters because it translates into delegates given the proportional allocation rules that the Democrats follow. I assure you the Clinton campaign could not have foreseen these margins of victory even just two months ago. And now, they are desperately running their spin machine at full speed in order to manipulate the media into buying into their narrative that all of these Obama victories are no big deal because they were "expected".

The fact of the matter is that the Clinton campaign is fighting for it's life right now and desperately needs a win in one of the three contests up for grabs today. If they do manage to eke out a victory the media will no doubt echo their spin by declaring it a huge "upset" just as they declared her slim 3% margin in New Hampshire an upset.

In reality, the upset is that Obama has been able to win so many contests and by such large margins. That is what no one expected just a few months ago.

So let's not buy their spin this time around. A win is a win is a win. A 20% margin is a "blowout", 10% is a "big win", 5% is a "win", less than 5% is pretty much a draw. These characterizations should hold no matter which side comes out on top.